DM Rates: Shaking off duration complacency
Sticking to US steepening bias.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow27 Jun 2024
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DM govvies sold off relentlessly over the last trading day as investors reassessed duration risks amidst stronger than expected inflation numbers from Canada and Australia. Rates have become too complacent amidst the summer lull with the market pushing flattening trades too far. For US Treasuries, key levels (2Y at 4.70%, 10Y at 4.20% and 2Y/10Y at -50bps) got rejected and the curve bear flattened. 10Y UST yields have now broken above resistance at 4.30%, setting sights on 4.50%.

To be sure, there are event risks to watch out for, starting with the first US Presidential debate tonight, PCE price inflation and French elections. We suspect that fiscal and inflation worries may be top of mind. Political rhetoric that could skew greater fiscal spending / protectionism could trigger steepening. We also note that if the French elections turned out to be a noise (for the market) embedded risk premiums (keeping long end yields lower than they otherwise would have been) should also fade. Conversely, political risk aversion could also trigger flattening, but that is not our core scenario and should also prove temporary. We stick to our steepening bias for the UST curve over the medium term.


Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 


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