Bracing for Liberation Day
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Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee1 Apr 2025
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US-led recession fears should see investors seeking safety in the greenback and US bonds. US President Donald Trump warned that reciprocal tariffs would hit all countries on April 2, or “Liberation Day.” Trump added that he “couldn’t care less” if his 25% tariff on autos leads US automakers to raise prices. Many Developed Market countries have threatened retaliation, increasing the odds of a global trade war that would hurt world economic growth.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicted that US GDP growth would contract by 2.8% QoQ saar in 1Q25, driven primarily by a surge in US imports to beat Trump’s tariffs. While the model saw US consumer and government spending weakening, it expected domestic demand growth to remain positive. Unless this Friday’s US monthly jobs disappoint significantly, Fed officials see Trump’s tariffs posing a greater risk to inflation than growth, advocating holding rates steady for an extended period. Instead, the Fed will, starting in April, reduce the monthly redemption cap on US Treasuries to USD5 bn from USD 25bn to provide additional liquidity and support to the financial system during this period of heightened uncertainty.

Against this background, the risk has increased for USD/JPY to stay above instead of below 150. The JPY’s strength this quarter from the Bank of Japan rate hike expectations has given way to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s worries about Trump’s auto tariff having a “very big” impact on Japan’s economy. The US is Japan’s largest export market, and its autos and auto parts account for a third of its exports to the US.

The commodity-led currencies – AUD, NZD, and CAD – should keep underperforming as they did over the past week ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Canada has taken a notable assertive stance in responding to US tariffs under the leadership of new Prime Minister Mark Carney. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to pause today after February’s rate cut. However, it may pave the way for a cut at the May 20 meeting after Australia’s national elections on May 3. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is anticipated to lower rates at its April 9 meeting; the next 25 bps cut to 3.50% will bring the cumulative easing since August 2024 to 200 bps. Despite the surprise rebound in GDP growth to 0.7% QoQ sa in 4Q24, the RBNZ has emphasized continued monetary support to ensure sustained economic recovery.

Currencies such as the KRW, TWD, and SGD have underperformed their Asian peers in the past week because of their heavy reliance on international trade. After failing to break below the support around 1430, USD/KRW returned near its 16-year high of 1478.60 at the end of 2024. South Korea is exposed to Trump’s tariffs on autos and steel. USD/TWD hit a 9-year high of 33.198 at the end of 1Q25. Taiwan has been identified among the “Dirty 15” countries with significant trade surpluses with the US; its significant semiconductor industry will unlikely be spared from US tariffs despite investments in US facilities. USD/SGD has risen towards 1.3450 in the past fortnight. It failed to break below the 1.33 support level this month after CPI and core inflation fell below their official forecast ranges for this year.


Quote of the Day
“There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing.”
     Robert Burns

April 1 in history
The Malayan Union officially came into existence in 1946, was dissolved two years later, and replaced by the Federation of Malaya in 1948.





Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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