USD eases on hopes of “lenient” reciprocal tariffs
Watching interplay between US tariffs, responses, and domestic pressures.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang28 Mar 2025
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The DXY had eased below mid-104 as markets reined priced out the worst outcomes for US reciprocal tariffs next week, with Trump characterising them as “very lenient”.   Trump has also said that he didn’t want too many exceptions in the reciprocal tariffs. Given uncertainty over the scope and magnitude of US tariffs, on top of seasonal quarter-end demand, the USD is still likely to remain supported in the interim.

USD/JPY has bumped up to 151 on concerns that Trump’s 25% tariffs on autos will adversely impact Japanese exports, with Japanese auto manufacturers seeing a drop in their share prices yesterday. Meanwhile, inflation is surprising on the upside, with March Tokyo core-core CPI inflation released today showing a rise to 2.2% y/y, from 1.9% in Feb. While higher inflation should support BOJ policy normalization, a BOJ board member has mentioned the need to watch US policy for possible downside risks in the March policy meeting summary of opinions. JPY could see near-term consolidation, being caught between trade risks and firming inflation.

EUR/USD is recovering back towards 1.08, after an initial dip on news of US auto tariffs. The EU is reportedly considering retaliation against US services exports, which include targeting US tech companies and US banks. The US has a trade surplus with the EU in services, making it more vulnerable in its trade in services compared to goods. Any EU retaliatory measures must be approved by a weighted majority of member states, and there is uncertainty on the extent of agreement that can be reached. While the EU’s objective may be to apply pressure for a comprehensive trade deal with the US, there are significant risks of short-term disruptions to growth, and possibly stagflation. Meanwhile, the UK has made clear that it will not jump into a trade war with the US, which could help GBP outperform against EUR.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]
 
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