Indonesia’s budget recorded an early year deficit in January-February 2025, for the first time since early-2021 (in midst of the pandemic), vs slipping into red in May in 2024 and October in 2023. Deficit in January-February 2025 stood at a modest -0.13% of GDP, with revenues at 10.5% of the full-year target, and disbursements at 9.6%. Total spending was down 7% yoy in first two months of the year, partly reflecting the government’s call to cut existing unproductive expenditure commitments by IDR 306.7trn (8% of total spending; 1.2% of GDP) to create headroom to finance welfare programs. Allocation towards subsidies and social assistance accelerated at the start of the year. The budget has set aside IDR 171trn towards the free meals program this year, of which IDR 710bn were reportedly distributed by early March, according to the press.
A bigger concern was the nearly 20% decline in total revenues, compounded by a 30% decline is tax receipts in first two months of the year. Officially, this fall was put to a correction in key commodities including coal, crude oil and nickel as well as adverse base effects from January 2024 which had seen the implementation of TER PPh21. Teething issues from the introduction of a new platform called Core Tax administration system (Coretax) from January this year also likely contributed to unevenness in capturing relevant data. Either way, revenue growth was expected to moderate on the back of a delay in the full rollout of the Value-added tax (VAT), slower consumption/ corporate earnings and moderation in commodity prices. An increase in royalites paid by mining companies, including on nickel derivatives (14-19% on ore vs current 10% according to press) and copper, are under consideration to boost revenues.
In totality, this year’s fiscal deficit target at -2.5% of GDP might need to be revised higher by 30-40bps if weak revenue trends persist. Authorities will nonetheless be keen to maintain the balance below the mandated deficit threshold of -3% of GDP to prevent pressure on debt markets. Also clouding the outlook is the channelling of budgetary support (including revenues) towards the new investment agency, with markets awaiting clarity. Despite these simmering concerns, bond yields were only marginally higher, benefiting from strong demand by local participants including the central bank (holds a quarter of outstanding issuance currently vs 10% in end-2019). Rupiah, however, has been unable to gain ground despite the sharp correction in the global US dollar. USDIDR stayed bid around 16400 this week, retaining its position as one of the regional underperformers. In light of our expectations of a re-firming in the dollar bias this month and next quarter, rupiah is likely to stay offered.
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