The European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate by 25bp to 2.5%, along expectations, taking cumulative cuts since 2024 to 150bp. The main refinancing operations and marginal lending facility will decrease to 2.65% and 2.90% respectively. The Governing Council attributed current stickiness in inflation to a gradual adjustment in past wages, signalling conviction that the forward-looking trend was moderating. Taking recent rate cuts into the equation, official commentary shifted from policy being restrictive to becoming ‘meaningfully less restrictive’ showing that rates are nearing neutral territory but the door for cuts remain open. Given the cut-off date for the staff forecasts, these economic assumptions likely have not factored in recent fiscal announcements, while US-led trade tensions remain high. Growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised down by 0.2% to 0.9% and 1.2% respectively and 2027 was unchanged at 1.3%. Inflation for 2025 was revised up marginally to 2.3% (+0.2% vs December‘s assessment) in 2025, 1.9% (+0%) in 2026 and 2.0%(-0.1%) in 2027.
The direction of policy travel becomes less certain in light of Germany’s recent investment push and Europe’s plan to increase defence outlay. Political leaders of Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD signalled a marked shift in policy by announcing plans to introduce a special fund for infra investments worth EUR500bn over the coming decade. Incoming Chancellor Merz also announced an agreement to change the constitutional fiscal debt brake to allow for higher defence spending. These proposals still need the vote in Bundestag, with plans to get it past the outgoing government to expedite the process as the new coalition will take time to form. Europe’s plans to kickstart defence spending depends on evoking the national escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, which effectively allows countries with higher deficits (>3% of GDP) to also participate. While plans are favourable, few things require clarity, including the need for member countries to potentially reorient existing spending to accommodate the new expenditure requirements (which will dictate extent of growth boost), potential increase in deficits/ debts in already highly indebted countries and bond market reaction to these plans (borrowing costs might rise). For a start, markets have given a green light, as signalled by the sharp boost to the EUR, but accompanied by a sharp rise in German bond yield to multi-decade highs. For the ECB, we retain our call for 50bp more cuts this year, keeping an eye on guidance from Chief Lagarde if the Council would prefer a pause at the next review to take stock of recent developments.
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