The INR experienced an impressive recovery of 0.7% to 86.8 per USD, its strongest one-day rally since 2022. The Reserve Bank of India reportedly intervened heavily on Monday and Tuesday to quell an unusual buildup of speculative short INR positions, which weakened INR to almost 88 on Monday. The RBI maintained that it was not targeting any specific level and was intervening to smooth out volatility.
Nonetheless, pulling the INR back from record lows would help defuse currency-related tensions for the meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump today. Although India has record trade deficits, it is America’s tenth-largest trade deficit partner. Modi’s goal is to avert Trump’s reciprocal tariffs by addressing his criticisms about high tariffs on American goods (e.g., electronics, medical equipment, chemicals), limited access of US good into India, and his desire for India to increase US defence and energy product purchases.
Despite this, we maintain our forecast for USD/INR to rise to 88.8 by mid-2025 on the USD’s haven status from Trump’s tariffs and the Fed delaying rate cuts to 2H25. We also see the RBI lowering rates by another 50 bps in 2Q25; today’s CPI inflation is expected to slow to 4.5% yoy in January from 5.2% in December.
The DXY Index corrected 0.4% lower to 107.93 after three days of gains. There were no surprises at Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. The Fed was not rushing to lower interest rates because the US economy remained strong with a broadly balanced labour market that did not add to price pressures. While inflation was somewhat elevated, it appeared well-anchored.
However, Powell said a sharp increase in M2 money supply might result in some inflation. He reckoned the neutral rate had risen significantly from its pre-pandemic lows. New York Fed President John Williams added that the current policy stance was modestly restrictive. Powell said the Fed was waiting for more details on Trump’s tariffs to assess their impact on inflation.
Today, Powell will testify again before the House Financial Services Committee following the release of US CPI data. Markets see both headline and core inflation remaining sticky at 0.3% MoM in January. However, USD bulls and the US bond market will be watchful for upside surprises in the year-on-year numbers. Consensus expects CPI inflation to remain unchanged at 2.9% yoy, excluding food and energy prices, to slow to 3.1% in January from 3.2% in December. The US Treasury 10Y yield rose a fourth day by 3.9 bps to 4.535% overnight.
Quote of the Day
“Always after a defeat and a respite, the Shadow takes another shape and grows again.”
J.R.R. Tolkien
February 12 in history
The last Emperor of China abdicated in 1912 at the age of 6.
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