Focus on Fed’s rate outlook and US tariffs
Eyeing support for USD from Powell’s testimony, AUD weakness ahead of RBA’s rate cut, and EUR depreciation into Germany’s election.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee10 Feb 2025
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Key events should support the greenback this week – US President Donald Trump pushing for “reciprocal tariffs” early this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to the US Senate Banking Committee on February 11, and sticky US CPI inflation data on February 12. 

Expect the questioning at Powell’s testimony to reflect partisan divisions. Republican senators will likely agree with Trump’s criticism that the Fed was not lowering rates fast enough. Democratic senators will likely express concerns about Trump’s policies (universal tariffs, tax cut extension, and deportation of illegal migrants) reigniting inflation.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently explained that the Trump administration was less concerned about the policy rate and more worried about the rise in the US Treasury 10Y yield after the jumbo 50 bps cut in September. Since the Trump Trades, 10Y bond yield differentials have driven the USD against the JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF, and CAD. European and commodity-led central banks have been lowering rates because they consider Trump’s tariffs a larger threat to their weak economies than inflation.

We expect Powell to remain cautious about lowering interest rates. In the latest University of Michigan survey of consumers, one-year inflation expectations spiked from 3.3% in January to 4.3% in February, its highest reading since November 2023. Despite the lower nonfarm payrolls in January, the unemployment rate fell to 4% with average hourly earnings rising to 4.1%. We expect Wednesday’s CPI and core inflation to remain sticky at 2.9% yoy and 3.1%, respectively, well above the 2% target. We see the Fed delaying rate cuts to 2H25 before keeping them steady at 4% throughout 2026. Previously, we expected two cuts to 4% in 1H25, followed by two more to 3.50% in 2026.

We maintain our call for EUR/USD to decline to parity by mid-year. Per the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, speculative bets against the EUR have increased to the largest levels since early 2020. The OIS market sees the European Central Bank lowering the deposit facility rate by another 75 bps to the 2% inflation target in September. More so after the ECB’s latest estimation of the neutral interest rate at 1.75-2.25%. Trump also warned that the EU could be next to face tariffs. The upcoming German federal elections on February 23 will likely result in a fragmented Bundestag and increase the difficulty of forming a stable and sustainable coalition government.

We see AUD/USD heading lower towards 0.60. The Oz’s rebound from this year’s low of 0.61 on February 3 stalled at 0.63 last week. We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the cash rate target by 25 bps to 4.10% at the February 18 meeting. CPI and trimmed mean inflation have returned to the 2-3% target range. GDP growth faltered below 1% for the first time since 2020, with per capita GDP in recession. Although the US runs trade surpluses with Australia, the RBA worries about Trump’s tariffs hurting China and Asia, Australia’s top export region. AUD is also a free-floating commodity-led currency highly exposed to risk sentiment in global financial markets.

Quote of the Day
“Instead of me having a breakdown, I’m focusing on me having a breakthrough.”
     Terrell Owens

February 10 in history
In 1996, IBM’s Deep Blue defeated chess champ Gary Kasparov, a milestone in the history of AI.

 





Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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