The RBI introduced a host of measures on Monday to ease the liquidity crunch in the banking system (and core balance). Steps include plans to a) conduct open market operations purchases worth INR 600bn in three tranches beginning Jan 30 (tenor mix signals durable liquidity infusion); b) 56-day variable rate repo (VRR) auction worth INR 500bn on Feb. 7 (same day as the rate meeting); c) USD/INR buy/sell swap auction of $5bn for a tenor of six months on Jan. 31 (will cover periodic outflows). Steps taken earlier were a mix of daily VRR auctions and secondary market OMOs. Persistent unsterilised dollar sales to defend the currency as well as seasonal drivers had magnified the liquidity squeeze, with the deficit widening sharply to INR3trn in recent sessions. Expectations were that this deficit would have persisted (and further widened) this quarter, which is also a fiscal year end.
This response is likely to be perceived by the markets as RBI swinging into multi-pronged action on the liquidity front rather than ad-hoc support. This is accompanied by demonstration of more flexibility on exchange rate movements, signaling a shift in the official response mechanism. From the rates standpoint, the immediate impact will be stabilisation in overnight rates, to keep it aligned with policy rates and to prevent tightness in financial conditions. 10Y yield is likely to extend its correction, after slipping to a three-year low at the start of this week on previous OMO action. The FY26 Budget will be tabled on 1-Feb, with FY26 fiscal deficit target likely to be set at -4.5% of GDP (India Budget preview: Striking a balance), and net borrowings at INR11.4trn. The Budget is likely to be largely non-disruptive as pre-emptive management on redemptions are likely to keep gross debt issuances in check.
Improved liquidity also sets the pace for improved transmission, as the February rate review approaches. Amidst decelerating inflation, a brief respite from a one-way dollar rally, signs of soft demand, and ongoing fiscal consolidation, onus is on the monetary policy to assume a growth supportive tone. Providing liquidity is important, as is easing the price of that liquidity. New members of the monetary policy committee – three external members joined in Oct24, new Governor assumed office in Dec24 and Deputy Governor in Jan25 – have openly conveyed little on their policy bias, though recent actions suggest that the path is being paved for monetary easing. We expect a 25bp cut at the February meeting, marking a start to the shallow rate cut cycle.
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