KRW rates: Further BOK easing still on the cards
BOK could cut when KRW stabilizes.
Group Research - Econs, Ma Tieying17 Jan 2025
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The Bank of Korea kept the base rate unchanged at 3.00% during its January 16 meeting, diverging from both consensus and our forecast of a 25bps rate cut. This decision marks the first time the BOK has opted to maintain rates after two consecutive 25bps reductions in October and November 2024.

 

A primary factor in the decision was the heightened volatility in exchange rates. The BOK expressed concerns over the potential impact of this volatility on inflation and financial stability. Governor Rhee noted that the USD/KRW is misaligned with fundamentals, pointing to excessive depreciation of the KRW against the USD, due to political instability in South Korea. Specifically, he explained that the USD/KRW’s rise from 1400 to 1470 in December — approximately 50 due to the strength of the USD and 20 due to political factors. The impact of the martial law crisis is estimated to be about 30, if considering the USD hedging volume of the National Pension Service and the market stabilisation measures enacted by the authorities.

 

The BOK also expressed concern over economic growth, highlighting that downside risks have intensified due to political uncertainty, which is dampening consumer sentiment and domestic demand. The central bank indicated that 4Q24 GDP growth would likely have fallen below 0.2% QoQ sa, and it now expects 2025 GDP growth to fall below its 1.9% estimate.

 

We continue to anticipate that the BOK will reduce rates to 2.75% by end-1Q and to 2.50% by end-2Q.A 25bps rate cut is expected at the February meeting, along with a downward revision to GDP forecast. The movement of the KRW is becoming an influential factor in BOK rate decisions. Provided there is no significant escalation in political turmoil following President Yoon’s arrest or a sharp rally in the USD/sell-off in EM currencies after Trump’s inauguration, we expect the KRW to stabilise, giving the BOK further room to cut rates at the February meeting. 

Ma Tieying 馬鐵英, CFA

Senior Economist - Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan 經濟學家 - 日本, 南韓及台灣
[email protected]

 


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