DBS Stock Pulse: (1) Global Technology - Smartphone market optimism and AI phone launches: Who’s poised to win? (2) Singapore REITs - Possible liquidity boost from T-Bill investors turning to REITs
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Group Research - Equities30 Aug 2024
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Trending Sector

Global Technology

Smartphone market optimism and AI phone launches: Who’s poised to win?

  • Smartphone shipments are set to grow to 1.23bn units (+5.8% y/y) in 2024, vs previous forecast of 1.21 bn units (source: IDC)
  • Android smartphones in China and emerging markets will lead the growth while Gen AI features in smartphones could boost demand in the premium segment
  • Apple’s launch of iPhone 16 in September is anticipated to shorten the replacement cycle among iOS users
  • IDC forecasts a 344% surge in GenAI smartphones, capturing 18% of the market by end 2024
  • Companies positioned to benefit from rising smartphone shipments and introduction of new AI features are
  • Qualcomm: leads the AI revolution with AI-enabled platforms for mobile; major customer Apple
  • Nanofilm: provides coating solutions, estimated > 50% revenue contribution from Apple
  • AAC Tech: rides on the upgraded microphones for enhanced Siri in iPhone 16 that should boost margins given higher ASPs
  • BYD Electronics: launch of AI powered smartphones to boost end market demand, supported by higher margin components for iPhone 16
  • Sunny Optical: set to capitalise on iPhone 16’s enhanced model mix as the supplier for wide angle lens for iPhones


Singapore REITs

Possible liquidity boost from T-Bill investors turning to REITs

  • Average cut-off yield of the 3 most recent 6-mth T-Bills issues has slid to just 3.29%
  • The latest cut-off yield for SGS 6-mth T-Bill (issue code: BS24117F) tumbled to just 3.13%, -21bps from the previous issue and extending the downward slide since August
  • This is significantly lower than the average yield of 3.71% for issues in the preceding 6 months from February to July 2024
  • The cumulative value of these higher yielding T-bills maturing from August 2024 to January 2025 is a whopping SGD85.4bn
  • Falling yield trend on SGS T-bills (and fixed deposits) could see investors turning to SREITs for better yields with the imminent start of the Fed rate cut cycle
  • Sensitivity analysis - Every 10% of liquidity from 6-mth T-bills maturing from August 2024 to January 2025 that seeks its way into SREITs can lift the average daily trading value for the sector by around SGD64.7mil. This works out to a 30.5% increase compared to the base value of SGD212.45mil recorded on mid-August.
  • Top 5 picks are FCT, MPACT, CLAR, FLT, and CLAS as highlighted in our sector analyst’s recent report


Mapletree REITs

More than meets the eye

  • Optimism fuels net allocation in S-REITs with more to come when global rates remain firmly on a downtrend
  • MLT – China concerns well flagged, but lower funding CNH costs imply that the REIT is enjoying a positive spread for their China exposures (c.20% of revenues)
  • MINT – Income vacuum from expiry of AT&T lease potentially pushed out by 12-17 months; implying more stability in DPU trends
  • MPACT – further recycling of non-core assets could be in the pipeline

 

Stocks to Watch

IHH Healthcare

<1H24 results analysis> Sustained core growth fueled by strong operational metrics

  • Delivered robust double-digit growth across revenue, EBITDA, and core PATMI in 1H24 due to higher revenue intensity, sustained occupancy at 70%, and price adjustments to counter inflation; above expectations
  • Key positives i) Higher revenue per inpatient admission, (ii) EBITDA margin expanded by 200 bps y/y in Singapore and India, (iii) interim dividend increased by c.30% to 4.5 sen
  • Datapoints to watch: (i) inflationary driven cost pressures especially for staff costs and (ii) implementation of growth strategies
  • We have a BUY rating with TP of RM7.60 / SGD2.18

 

GuocoLand

FY24 operating profit (+13% y/y) made up only c.80% of our estimate

  • FY24 operating profit up 13% y/y to SGD320mn; profit attributable to equity holders fell 38% y/y to SGD129mn – both below expectations
  • Key positives: (i) Strong sell-through rates for development properties; (ii) Recurring rental income expected to increase further; (iii) Uplift in portfolio valuations
  • Key negatives: (i) Lower-than-expected margins for property development based on our estimates; (ii) Higher interest expenses; (iii) Allowance for foreseeable losses on China development properties
  • We currently have a BUY recommendation and TP of SGD2.30; estimates under review

 

Singtel

Three key takeaways from Investor Day 2024

  • Singtel to double its data-centre (DC) EBITDA by 2028 driven by premium pricing; this goal excludes its regional DC JVs
  • India & Australia to be key growth markets – more tariff hikes in India while Australia to benefit from previous tariff hikes and cost reductions
  • Mentioned potential for share buybacks/ capital reductions on top of value realisation dividend (VRD) and regular dividends. BUY with an unchanged TP of SGD3.50

 

SIA

FDI approval for proposed Vistara-Air India merger

  • SIA has received approval from the Government of India for foreign direct investment into the enlarged AI (“FDI Approval”), as part of the proposed merger between Vistara and Air India
  • The proposed merger is expected to occur by the end of 2024
  • SIA will hold approximately 25.1% of the enlarged entity upon completion of the merger
  • We currently have a HOLD recommendation with TP SGD6.40

 

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Note: All views expressed are current as at the stated date of publication.
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