DBS Stock Pulse: (1) Defensive stocks – 3 with limited upside, 3 to switch into (2) Global Luxury – Stick to scarcity: Hermes best positioned amid luxury slowdown
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Group Research - Equities17 Apr 2025
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Market View Update

Defensive stocks – 3 with limited upside, 3 to switch into

 

Stocks under coverage with share prices above 02 Apr levels

 

02 Apr prices

16 Apr prices

Change

12-mth TP

12-mth return

STI stocks

Singtel

3.51

3.69

5.1%

3.93

6.5%

ST Eng

6.66

7.03

5.6%

7.50

6.7%

CICT

2.1

2.11

0.5%

2.30

9.0%

SGX

13.09

13.53

3.4%

14.00

3.5%

Non-STI stocks

Netlink

0.88

0.895

1.7%

0.98

9.5%

PLife REIT

4.04

4.18

3.5%

4.75

13.6%

Sheng Siong

1.64

1.66

1.2%

1.90

14.5%

StarHub

1.19

1.2

0.8%

1.46

21.7%

Raffles Med

0.985

0.99

0.5%

1.12

13.1%

Source: DBS, Refinitiv

3 other defensive stocks to consider

 

02 Apr prices

16 Apr prices

Change

12-mth TP

12-mth return

Sembcorp Ind

6.58

6.31

-4.1%

1.80

22.4%

ComfortDelGro

1.48

1.47

-0.7%

8.00

26.8%

DFI Retail (USD)

2.38

2.24

-5.9%

3.00

33.9%

Source: DBS, Refinitiv

 

  • There is now limited upside to these 3 defensive blue-chips that have outperformed amid the fluid tariff developments

- Share prices of stocks like Singtel, ST Eng, and SGX have 1) surged by =>10% from the 9 Apr lows, 2) surpassed levels before the US’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements, and 3) brought their 12-mth price return to less than 10%

- Their >3% share price increases since 02 Apr also rank amongst the highest vs. their peers and/or other defensive sectors (e.g., healthcare, staples)

  • We see better upside potential in other equally-defensive stocks, should the tariff news flows continue to support the rotation into defensives

- Sembcorp Industries: Defensive exposure through utilities that are less sensitive to economic fluctuations, with a steady 8% EPS growth in FY25F/26F

- ComfortDelGro: Strong 14% FY25F EPS growth and >6% forward yields; also a beneficiary of lower oil prices 

- DFI Retail: Showcases the resilience of domestic North-Asia convenience store business, underpinned by >5% forward yields; any potential descalation of US-China tensions will be a positive for this stock

 

Trending Sector

Global Luxury

Stick to scarcity: Hermes best positioned amid luxury slowdown

Hermes has outperformed and could extend its lead

LVMH’s 1Q25 results underperformed consensus expectations

  • Our overweight call on Hermes has played out, with the stock delivering a stronger performance than both LVMH and Kering in the past six months (DBS Stock Pulse 17 Oct 2024: Hermes better positioned to weather LVMH jitters)
  • LVMH’s broad-based miss suggests soft underlying luxury demand
  • 1Q25 results were weak across all divisions, with fashion and leather goods, which account for nearly half of FY24 revenue, down 5% y/y vs. expectations of -0.6%
  • Luxury at risk from wealth erosion, tariffs, and softer sentiment
  • With Trump’s tariff threats, weaker equity markets, and softening consumer sentiment, we see downside risks to discretionary spending on luxury
  • A diminished wealth effect from falling asset prices may curb appetite for big-ticket items, while tariffs could raise input costs or trigger retaliatory measures that weigh on global demand
  • We maintain a relative preference for Hermes over peers (LVMH and Kering) given its more resilient ultra-affluent customer base, strong brand equity, and scarcity-driven pricing model
  • Unlike peers that rely more heavily on aspirational or entry-level luxury, Hermès targets a smaller but more insulated clientele less sensitive to macro volatility
  • Its controlled production volumes and waitlists for core products reinforce exclusivity and pricing power, supporting margin stability even in a weaker demand environment

 

Stocks to Watch

CapitaLand Investment

Triggering first C-REIT listing

  • Proposed inaugural China REIT (C-REIT) seeded by assets within the group’s ecosystem
  • CLI, CLCT, and CLD to collectively own 20% in the new C-REIT, expected to be listed soon
  • Investors laud CLI for its continued pursuit of FUM growth, tapping a growing pool of onshore capital in China
  • Questions may initially arise on CLCT’s viability and strategy; but over time, the REIT could tap a onshore recycling opportunity and attract international capital looking to deploy into China; steep discount to book unwarranted

 

Keppel DC REIT

Portfolio recalibration continues to drive earnings growth

  • 1Q25 DPU of 2.503Scts in line with our projections, forming c.25% of our full year estimates
  • Key positives: i) Continued positive rental reversions of +7%, ii) healthy portfolio occupancy rate and long WALE, iii) improvement in gearing and borrowing costs
  • What we are watching for: loss allowances at Guangdong DC as rents continue to be in arrears
  • Maintain BUY with a TP of SGD2.50

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Note: All views expressed are current as at the stated date of publication.

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