Singapore: Resilient 1H25 outlook amidst uncertain times
After much better economic growth in 2024, Singapore’s economy will be tested by rising global trade protectionism in 2025.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng14 Feb 2025
  • 2024 real GDP growth was lifted to 4.4% due to stronger manufacturing and services expansion.
  • We expect resilient 1H25 growth amid still-positive sentiment among most external-oriented firms.
  • However, escalating global trade tensions pose the biggest downside risk to our full-year outlook.
  • Macroeconomic policy mix, including Budget 2025, will aim to manage downside growth uncertainties.
  • Implications for our forecast: We maintain our 2025 real GDP growth forecast at 2.8%.
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Singapore’s economy will likely expand within our estimated medium-term potential growth rate of 2-3% in 2025, cooler than the strong 4.4% expansion in 2024. Full-year real GDP growth for 2024 was raised from the advance estimate (AE) of 4.0%, reflecting upward revisions in all four quarters of 2024, due to stronger manufacturing and services performance. Growth came in at least at 5% year-on-year (YoY) for the second consecutive quarter in 4Q24, a robust achievement for an advanced economy. Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted (QoQ sa) growth was 0.5% in 4Q24. Advance GDP growth for 4Q24 was 4.3% YoY and 0.1% QoQ sa.

We maintain our 2025 real GDP growth forecast at 2.8%. Singapore’s external-oriented sectors benefitted significantly from improved external demand in 2H24, which we expect to remain resilient at least through 1H25. However, the full-year outlook faces considerable downside risks, especially from rising geopolitical tensions due to higher tariffs and elevated trade policy uncertainty under Trump 2.0. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) maintained its 2025 growth forecast range at 1.0% to 3.0%. We view the lower bound as leaving scope for any negative growth disappointment. The MTI sees significant global economic uncertainties, with risks tilted to the downside, reiterating two relatively similar key global downside risks flagged in November 2024. They are 1) ongoing trade frictions among major economies, and risks of escalation in geopolitical conflicts; and 2) tighter financial conditions from disruptions to the global disinflation process. Regarding the US economy, it expects slower growth in 2025, and sees ‘a large cone of uncertainty’, with the path dependent on US policies.

Macroeconomic policy mix to manage downside growth uncertainties

Singapore’s macroeconomic policy mix is geared towards managing downside growth uncertainties in 2025. Fiscal policy is poised to be supportive in Budget 2025 to be announced on February 18. We expect an overall fiscal deficit of SGD3.8bn (0.5% of GDP) in FY2025, as the external uncertainties could prompt a counter-cyclical fiscal stance. Fiscal flexibility in FY2025 stems from recent budgetary outperformance, with the overall surplus in FY2024 likely to register above the initial positive amount. Budget 2025 therefore has the fiscal ammunition to manage the dual priorities of addressing near-term cost challenges, and rolling out further initiatives under Forward Singapore to refresh the social compact and position Singapore’s economy to thrive amid global uncertainty (see ‘Singapore Budget 2025: Managing dual priorities’ for a detailed discussion).

Monetary policy was eased following the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)’s slight reduction in the slope of its SGD nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) policy band during its January review. With policymakers anticipating core inflation to return to a low and stable rate of 1.0-2.0% in 2025, the measured recalibration was in response to a highly uncertain global economic landscape in 2025 and the downside growth risks it present. The MAS’s dovish rhetoric in January leaves scope for further easing if growth and inflation disappoint (see ‘Singapore: A dovish tilt on rising uncertainties).


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Chua Han Teng, CFA

Economist - Asean
[email protected]
 


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