Fixed Income Weekly | Elevated Treasury Yields Amid Economic Resilience and Political Uncertainty
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Chief Investment Office24 Oct 2024
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FOCUS OF THE WEEK

Since the Fed cut on September 18, 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries are up by 41 bps and 50 bps respectively. There are a few considerations for rates and it is clear that a Fed that intends to ease is not a sufficient condition for bringing yields lower. Fundamentally, there are no obvious signs that the US economy is slowing. Moreover, market participants are not about to make the same mistake as 2016 and completely ignore the risk of a Trump victory. A breakdown of USD rates indicates that a rise in term premium (58 bps over the past three months) was the single largest driver for higher 10Y yields. Rising inflation expectations and the paring of Fed cut bets are the other two drivers keeping USD rates buoyant. We believe these shifts make sense. Ignoring political outcomes, a rise in term premium is the best way to express economic growth optimism. With Trump’s odds increasing, market participants have to price in potentially larger fiscal deficits and higher inflation. Moreover, speculation that Trump may apply pressure on the Fed to cut rates is unlikely to fade. If the Fed keeps policy settings looser than they otherwise should be, curves should be steeper. With increased uncertainties, investors are demanding a larger premium for holding long duration USTs. At these levels, we think yields across the curve (above 4%) all look somewhat elevated. However, a tad more caution is needed for the long tenors (10Y and 30Y) as we expect fiscal worries to linger into the elections on 4 November.

Figure 1: Breakdown of changes in 10Y UST yield

Source: Bloomberg, DBS


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Note: All views expressed are current as at the stated date of publication

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