Trump 2.0 is to bring volatility to global autos. In Feb 2025, Trump imposed a blanket 10% tariff on China and is set to proceed with 25% tariffs on Mexico, Canada, steel, and aluminum imports in Mar 2025. Trump also announced plans for higher tariffs on China, as well as potential tariffs on auto, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical imports. The volatile trade outlook could bring share price volatility, auto parts supply chain disruptions, and cost pressures to global autos, as witnessed in the 2018-2019 US-China trade tensions.
US automakers to see a volatile 2025. US-based automakers could be more vulnerable to trade escalations given their reliance on (i) Mexico/Canada auto production and (ii) imported auto parts. Based on our estimates, Mexico/Canada production make up 10-20% of group production/sales for GM, Honda, and Ford, and <10% for Toyota, Volkswagen, and BMW. In the past, US-based automakers (e.g., Ford and Honda) had also cited earnings warnings due to tariffs on steel and aluminium. These concerns were also highlighted in recent 4Q24 earnings calls, where US automakers (e.g., GM, Ford, Tesla) delivered a cautious 2025 outlook on weakening ASP pricing, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) roll-back risks, and tariff uncertainty. Toyota, on the other hand, upgraded its outlook on firm US pricing power and reduced incentives, given its tight inventory.
Remain selective: Toyota, Denso, and Chinese automakers shine amid US risks. In the US, we prefer Toyota (2nd largest US automaker) on firm hybrid demand and its lower exposure to Mexico/Canada production. Denso, a major supplier to Toyota, is also set to benefit from Toyota’s production recovery in CY25. Furthermore, to position for Trump 2.0, we advocate investors to seek diversification outside of US e.g., China. In 2018-2019, Chinese automakers outperformed global autos on the back of healthy growth drivers like robust xEV sales. Going forward, we believe Chinese automakers (e.g., Geely) are well-positioned to outperform global autos given their healthy demand backdrop on (i) government auto stimulus extension, (ii) firm xEV demand, and (iii) autonomous driving tailwinds.
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