FOCUS OF THE WEEK
The October US inflation prints met expectations. Headline and core PCE were unchanged at 0.2% m/m and 0.3%, respectively, the same levels as a month ago. In response, the futures market increased the probability of a 25 bps December rate cut from 52.3% to 66.5%. The US Treasury 2Y yield fell a third session by 2.9 bps to 4.23%, its lowest close since 7 Nov. 10Y yield closed at 4.26%, near the month’s low of 4.22% seen on 1 Nov. US fiscal sustainability worries also appeared to have ebbed after Trump nominated prominent hedge fund manager Steve Bessent as US Treasury Secretary at the start of the week. The Fed remained unperturbed, focusing instead on the easing trajectory in the recent release of the Fed minutes.
There are two key takeaways from the Fed minutes. Firstly, the minutes offered a more cautious take on easing. Many participants think that it is “complicated” to assess the degree of restrictiveness on current monetary policy settings. In particular, the appropriate neutral rate is uncertain and may well be higher than what the Fed pencilled in for September (2.9%). From the market’s perspective, this is not new. Given resilient US data and upside growth and inflation risks, the market is barely pricing in three more cuts by the end of 2025. In any case, we still think the Fed would cut in December, but it could well signal an even slower pace of easing going forward.
Secondly, the Fed hinted on a “technical” adjustment in the RRP rate. Currently, the RRP rate stands at 4.55 bps, 5 bps higher than the FFR lower bound. The Fed is mulling to align the RRP to the FFR floor which would imply a 5 bps rate cut. A change is imminent and may precipitate as early as December’s FOMC meeting. Funds placed at the RRP facility has declined steadily from c.USD2.5tn to c.USD148bn. If the tweak occurs, the remaining funds could flow out into other short-term instruments, lowering short-term USD rates in general. That said, this looks to be a one-off adjustment on rate levels and short-end swap spreads. The motivations for the Fed could be to ensure sufficient liquidity ahead of uncertainty in 2025.
Figure 1: Changes in spreads
Source: Bloomberg, DBS
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